Risk Assessment

Data and Analysis Center Risk Team

The Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009 and Department of Defense Instruction 5000.02 are driving more analysis to support Analysis of Alternatives (AoA), of which risk and trade-offs are key elements. An AMSAA-led Risk Integrated Product Team (IPT) was formed in March 2011 to develop standard and more quantitative methodologies for conducting risk assessments. A permanent Risk Team was established in October 2011 to further meet the organization's risk assessment demands. The Risk Team is tasked to develop and maintain the methodologies and conduct the independent risk assessments supporting AoAs and related Army Acquisition program studies. Its tools and analyses provide decision makers with risk-related information, and inform trade space studies and requirements development. Specifically, the Risk Team has developed methodologies for conducting technical and schedule risk assessments, which it employs in support of these studies. In addition, the Data & Analysis Center partners with the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Cost and Economics (ODASA-CE), whose cost risk and uncertainty analyses also support these studies.

The Technical Risk Assessment evaluates the risk to each alternative of delivering its critical technologies or technologies of interest. It is based on the probability of a technology being fully developed, integrated, and manufactured by the planned Milestone (MS) C date. The probabilities are based on Subject Matter Expert (SME) input and forecasts, or historical data. Individual risks are assessed according to their likelihood of occurrence, and the consequence to the program should they occur. These two numerical values are plotted on the Risk Reporting Matrix and an assessment of risk rating is based on their location on the matrix.

The Schedule Risk Assessment determines the likelihood of an acquisition program meeting its proposed milestone schedule deadlines, by comparing a program's proposed schedule to those of analogous historical acquisition programs. Risk ratings are assigned to the program phases based on these probabilities. The assessment further identifies schedule risk drivers and potential risk mitigation strategies, where possible.

The Risk Team is also focused on continued methodology development and refinement of quantitative analysis tools to support both the Technical and Schedule Risk Assessments. These tools provide a rigorous analytical framework to sustain ongoing analysis, and ensure that results meet appropriate standards of accuracy and correctness. Examples of internally created and implemented tools include the Schedule Risk Data Decision Methodology, Confidence Interval Methodology for Ratio Means, and Monte Carlo Simulation Technical Risk Assessment. These developed Risk Methodologies are currently employed in ongoing AoA studies.


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Mr. Amato

Mr. James Amato
Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD

Related Link:
Mr. Amato Biography

Page last updated Thu June 6, 2019 16:55